The best solution for the AFL Fixture

Ok this topic has been done to death – but it does also tie in with other topics that we discuss regularly on this site – in relation to physical preparation, junior development and progression and the loading on players. So for the sake of it lets just dive in.

First things first, the main limiting factor with any solution here appears to be the ‘necessity of a 22 game season.’ We will get to that in a minute – but if it must be a 22 game season – and there are no other options for change there, then the proposed 17-5 formula that is being proposed is probably – unfortunately – as good as it is going to get from a fairness and equality point of view. There will of course be other issues that arise in the different sections. One that is never discussed but surely cant be ignored is what top-6 round robin does in terms of the excitement around finals. Would there be the same level of anticipation and uncertainty going into the first week or 2 of finals if it comes on the back of the top 6 having just played against the rest of the top 6 over the previous 5 weeks? The feel around the finals would surely be diluted. But that is a discussion for another day. In terms of an ‘even’ draw, with 18 teams, where we ‘must’ play 22 games because we must stay chained to this dogma of 22 games forever, then 17 and 5 format is probably the fairest option available.

But of course we could evolve. We of course play 22 games because that is what the old VFL system was, and while the AFL is often accused of being the VFL in disguise, this isn’t the reason why we stick to 22 games – rather it is because of agreements with TV and radio networks, as well as the various major sponsors which have their badges plastered everywhere on these mediums during the season. The best available solutions (not a stupid ’17 & 5’ compromise which only leaves executives in suits patting themselves on the back while virtually every other stakeholder in the game – especially supporters – are left ruing the call) to the fixture problem of course involve changing the number of games. Of course changing the number of games will then require a solution to the broadcast issue – 22 sets of 9 matches. Luckily this is where we believe there is a relatively simple solution to this, which will also appease another want of supporters and players. We will get to that.

17 Games

A 17 game season is the best solution to an 18-team competition, in which everyone plays in the same competition. (I used to be an advocate for an AFL and ‘B’FL with promotion and relegation and everyone playing everyone twice, but the sporting culture in Australia would never adopt it. But try telling that to the soccer community who continue to criticise their own governing body over this issue.) Hypothetically a 34 game season with everyone playing each other twice is the ‘best’ solution. It’s certainly the fairest measure, but 22 games already drags on. Could you imagine supporters or the football community at large being subjected to 12 more games from Gold Coast and Carlton! There are already so many seemingly pointless matches and dead-rubbers – that to add more matches would only further highlight the gaps between the various sides during any particular season.

That is before even figuring in the impact on players bodies and the required money involved. If players are going to play more matches, they are going to want a lot more money. Additionally, squad sizes would need to be substantially bigger than the 40-odd number they are now – as the game would require a lot more squad rotation, English Premier League style. And since we have salary caps and drafts, clubs cant just buy unlimited size squads.

Getting a bit side-tracked here, but for those advocating 34 games, this would raise more issues than it solves. None more so than interest levels dropping off (as many already do well before round 22, let alone round 34!)

So why 17 games?

“I think everybody knows what the answer should be, but it just comes down to the money that game is generating and the TV rights as well. But 17 would be ideal.”

Peter Burge
Richmond High Performance Manager

It is very fair, with the inequality negligible.

Everyone plays each other once, with who is home and who is away alternating from year to year. In 2020 West Coast play Collingwood in Perth, while in 2021, the match up takes place in Melbourne. In 2020 the showdown is Adelaide’s home game, while in 2021 it becomes Port Adelaide’s home game. And so on and so forth for every match up. This would also eliminate the degree of tinkering with the fixture from year to year, with the only real juggling being trying to keep all clubs happy with their time slots.

There would be an ideal sort of layout where as a Victorian club you go interstate 4 times one year, whilst playing the other non-Victorian teams in Victoria 4 times that year. Then the roles would reverse the following season and alternate from there on in. Each teams draw would be virtually the same, with any inequality in who gets who at home largely evened out – especially so given the fact that it is reversed the very next season!

There is far more credibility in the ladder and the positions heading into finals if the draw is virtually the same for each team. At the moment, the league lacks this credibility. Whoever is top and also bottom will probably be the same regardless. However each position in between will be impacted by who has played who twice.

One match up each – more interest

One showdown. One derby. One Carlton v Richmond. One Essendon v Collingwood. Hell even one GWS v Western Bulldogs holds a little more appeal if you know it only happens once each year. There is a little more on the line for sides with only one match up against each opponent.

Shorter season/less matches – less drop off in interest

With less games, each game becomes more important. Additionally, more teams will remain in contention for longer in terms of top 8 and top 4 qualification. The longer a season goes, the more stretched the ladder generally becomes, especially with the poor teams becoming almost un-watchable, but glorified witches hats for decent sides, by the later rounds. By making each game more important, a greater level of anticipation and urgency adds further to the competition.

Player Health and Longevity

We discuss this at length in various forms elsewhere. Supporter interest certainly funds the league, but these are the stakeholders that drive the interest (although the backslappers at AFL house no doubt think it is them.) Enhancing the longevity of careers is one area of player welfare that should always be taken into consideration. We have mentioned increasing the draft age as vital in this, but less games per season will also assist. Yes clubs can choose (and do choose) to rest players with some squad rotation. But less matches in a season will make this automatic. And it will certainly have the impact of prolonging the average career.

Quality

More isn’t always better. In fact more often than not, its not. The longer the season goes, the more injuries there are, and the less of the best players there are available at any given time. The longer the season, also means the greater the gap between the good teams and the lesser teams. Less matches means a greater standard – as well as a greater evenness between sides – is maintained for a greater relative proportion of the season.

It necessitates something else to fill the void of these lost matches. With what?

This is the best part – we will get to it shortly.

It isn’t a sudden drop from 22 games to 17 either

The decrease in matches wouldn’t be an instant one. Rather a gradual one over say a 5 year period, dropping 1 round a year, and replacing it with something extra each year (we will get to that.) The time to do it, and to make the decision would be the next TV and radio (etc deal.) When exchanging the next 5 year deal, what the AFL would put on the table would be a reduced amount (by only 1 round each year) of AFL games, where they would also table what they will add in content wise.

So under the new broadcast deal, say year 1 is 2021 with 21 games, 2022 with 20, 2023 with 19, 2024 with 18, before finally in 2025 the AFL is finally set at a 17 game season.

The argument against this of course becomes ‘but we can’t ask for more money if we are giving less.’ The AFL is the biggest and best sporting competition in the land with daylight 2^nd. Everyone wants a piece of it! The AFL wouldn’t be able to get as much as they would with a 22 round season, but they would surely still at least match what they got last time (which then translates too more per game,) but likely still more total money anyway – if they replaced those lost matches with other material or value for sponsors.

What happens to player payments?

Similar to the point above. Player payments would at worst remain the same in terms of overall salary – but would become more per game played. But once again, in reality, by replacing those lost rounds with something else, salaries would still rise, especially given the might and the appeal of the AFL anyway.

How do we fill extra commitment to broadcasters?

Having the female league taking center stage at different intervals is a common opinion. And maybe in time as the league grows this will work. However with 60% of current supporters saying they have no interest and do not watch the womens league, this will hardly leave the sponsors and broadcasters satisfied. In any case, we have a better idea.

We hear this issue raised and debated at length – and we hardly want to rehash old ground – so this will be a completely fresh take on this concept – as it links in with the 17 game AFL season. It involves everyone’s favourite lost relic – State of Origin.

‘But where do we put it?’ ‘And which states play?’ ‘Oh well just make it Victoria and SA!’ ‘But what about WA?’ ‘What about the northern states.’ None of these things become an issue anymore.

For starters, who are the state teams? The numbers in brackets indicate the current players on lists from each state (the start of the 2018 season that is.) *Source Footballistics.

1.Victoria (432)

2.South Australia (102)

3.Western Australia (116)

4.NSW/ACT (48)

5.Queensland (49)

6. Northern Territory (14) or Tasmania (25)

As far as which of Northern Territory and Tasmania are included, based on the latest numbers, the Northern Territory fall short of the required numbers for a team, and even Tasmania would likely not have enough at different stages due to injuries. They could of course use top up players from the state leagues when required, and this in itself would bring a bit of the old romance of true state of origin again – with players from different leagues competing. However, these sides would likely be very uncompetitive. These 2 sides could have a play-off to see who was the 6^th team each season perhaps. Either way, for arguments sake, lets say there is a 6^th team, but if of course there were only 5 state teams deemed as eligible, everything else that follows would remain the same, just with 1 less game.

So who plays who?

In a sentence, everyone plays everyone each year. There are 5 origin games for each state spread out over the course of the season.

Just as with the AFL rounds, it alternated from year to year in terms of who plays home and who plays away. In 2020 Victoria plays WA at the MCG, but in 2021 it is in Perth. In 2020 Victoria play SA at the Adelaide oval, but in 2021 the fixture moves to the MCG.

So each state plays each other once each year for a total of 5 games each.

When do they play?

This could take on a number of formats. The simplest concept of the format is playing 1 round of origin matches for every 3 rounds of AFL matches. So after round 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 there is a weekend off for the origin games. Followed by the last 2 games (it’s a 17 game season now remember) then finals.

In reality, breaking up the clubs that often may be a little too often and too disruptive. Another option would be having only 3 breaks for origin, but 2 of those involve 2 games. So after round 5, we play 2 origin games, after round 10 2 more, and then 1 more after round 15 to round out the origin season.

There are of course chinks to iron out here, but this is just an overview of the concept.

Mock/hypothetical state teams in newspapers every year really do get very tiresome - while there is no realistic way or State of origin being brought back in the current format of an AFL season, and our  only realistic  taste of it being in computer games currently.

How would weekends be structured?

The AFL club season has the weekend off of course. So the broadcasters would get 3 origin games on those weekends to fill the void.

Round 5 break:

Thursday night (or Sunday afternoon) – Queensland v Northern Territory GABBA

Friday night – South Australia v Western Australia Adelaide oval

Saturday night – NSW/ACT v Victoria @ SCG

No issues around which states play and who plays who – over the course of a year everyone plays everyone, and all states field a team (sorry Northern Territory or Tasmania.)

Staggered build – in line with AFL club-game decrease

We introduce 1 round of state games in the first season, as the AFL season is reduced by 1 round. Then 2, then 3, etc, until finally we hit our end point with a 17 game AFL season where everyone plays each other once and a 5 game State of origin season, where everyone plays each other once.

Ladder

Like the old state carnivals that I hear so much about but occurred before my time, there would be a ladder, with a genuine champion, based on a season where each state has played each other.

A Grand Final?

The state champions get a trophy and it is celebrated like any title. But the only question here is, do we give it to whoever is top of the ladder after the 5 game season? Or do we have a state grand final?

Ok this one genuinely becomes an issue of ‘when do we have it?’ Most realistically, this probably is best suited to the weekend after the Grand Final. The AFL Grand Final is the showpiece event, and a one-off state of origin round after the grand final wouldn’t work. But a state of origin grand final that is a proper grand grand final with a proper 5-game competition over the course of the season where everyone has played each other all of a sudden would hold a lot more prestige and care factor amongst both supporters and players alike.

Reward the minor premier state

And here is a radical idea – yeh we know the AFL club grand final will forever be at the MCG. Time to get over it and move on. But what if this State of Origin was a way for the other states to get something back (if they earn it.) Whoever finishes top of the state of origin ladder after the 5 matches hosts the state of Origin Grand Final.

2023 AFL Grand Final – October 1^st Essendon defeats West Coast at MCG.

But a week later Western Australia will host the State of Origin grand final against South Australia (Victoria only finished 4^th this year.) Footy season is finished, you think the state grand final wouldn’t sell out and draw a fantastic atmosphere – given that it is a real tournament now, rather than a one off exhibition match each season (like it last was in the 90’s.)

The real test

There are various questions that will need to be addressed – none that can’t be mind you, if players and administrators and the game as a whole were wiling to. But the primary test in this layout would be whether the players for starters do want origin as much as they say they do – when push comes to shove. And then also by extension whether supporters are into it as much as they say they are after all, or whether interest dies after a year or 2. And maybe in reality people don’t genuinely crave it as much as they say they do.

I have to admit, under the old state of origin in the 90’s (1 game a season), I wasn’t interested, as it felt like an exhibition match as a one off – and there was no real system with who plays who. But I think a season of 5 games played periodically over the course of an AFL season, with an actual state champions trophy and grand final would be brilliant.

But if we couldn’t get state of origin reinstated in a system where we now have dedicated weekends during the season kept free specifically for it, we never will.

Just a further tick here to a 17-game season – as it draws state of origin back into the fold – as a key pillar in the fabric of the game.

Overview of final product

Just in revision;

17 game AFL season

5 game State of Origin season

(That’s 22 rounds of football on my maths.)

Alternate who gets the home game from year to year.

Various benefits associated, but the key ones being;

A fair, even and credible AFL season

The reinstatement – and proper inclusive execution of State of Origin to top it off

Of course at the end of the day, this is little more than a pipe dream. A 17-game season, with the fairness and equality it brings, as well as the excitement of each match up happening only once, combined with the reintroduction of a full 5-game state of origin series each year, surely isn’t worth even bothering with when there are more dollars to be had, more corporate back-slapping to attend to, and more social justice issues to jump on the bandwagon of.

The problem for the general football public is that the popularity of the league and the sport itself is its own undoing in this way. It doesn’t matter how much the league is tampered with and destroyed by the kings in their castles, supporters and members will continue to support regardless. And it has nothing to do with the game being run well, but rather happens despite how ridiculous decisions being made are.

But we can still dream.